In December 2004, the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the International Development Research Centre of Canada provided Strategic Assessments Initiative (SAI) with funding to establish a transition assistance group to aid the parties and the international community during Israel’s ‘disengagement’ from the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank.

Following a series of ‘track I’ and ‘track II’ meetings between Israeli, Palestinian and international participants to address third party involvement in the conflict, a planning team was established in situ to consider short-term security and non-security issues, as well as the long-term reform of the Palestinian security sector. The effort was designed to proceed through the phases of ground assessment, operational planning and implementation assistance. The results of the initial assessment outlined feasible third party tasks for maximizing the effectiveness and legitimacy of the disengagement process.

Elements of the Security Assessment

The subsequent security assessment, one part of a broader appraisal, sought to reconcile the short-term requirements of the disengagement with the longer-term imperatives of Palestinian security sector reform and development. In the midst of rapidly evolving conditions, the broad elements of the assessment aimed to include:

• An assessment of specific ground conditions affecting transitional security arrangements during and after the disengagement in the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank.
  
• Identification of actual or possible transitional security arrangements throughout and after the disengagement.
  
• Mapping of current Palestinian and international activities in the development of the Palestinian security sector, including the identification of gaps and shortcomings.
  
• Strategic review of the Palestinian security sector (including consideration of a White Paper/Strategic Force Review and a transitional security plan).
  
• Delineation of potential third party involvement in transitional security arrangements and the development of the Palestinian security sector.
  
• Consideration of the role of non-state actors in the disengagement process.

However, the pace of events has been such that SAI’s ITAG was drawn into the operational planning and subsequent implementation phases before the issuing of its assessment. The substance of the assessment was utilized in the immediate security planning process for disengagement, as originally intended; moreover, it provides the basis for a review of the Palestinian security sector the day after disengagement in order to develop a comprehensive strategy for reform.

Security Planning Process

In May 2005, PA Minister of Interior Nasr Yousef established a TSPT with the full endorsement of the U.S. Security Coordinator, General William Ward. The TSPT is comprised of representatives of the PA Ministry of the Interior (MoI), ITAG and all PA security forces (SF). The aim of the TSPT was to prepare an integrated Palestinian security plan for deployment during Israel’s withdrawal from territory in the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank. The team presented its initial efforts to the Working Group for Security Sector Reform in Jericho on 17 May and a joint Concept of Operations on 16 June 2005.

The TSPT has operated according to three cardinal principles:

• Comprehensiveness: The team includes the participation of all Palestinian security services. The breadth of planning spans security issues in their broadest sense and includes a Public Information Outreach (PIO) element
  
• International/Palestinian Composition: The composition of the team is both international and Palestinian. ITAG provides the international members of the TSPT, drawing on the expertise of several nations.
  
• West Bank/Gaza Strip Scope: The geographic scope of planning covers both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

The TSPT has conducted its work within both a short and long-term context. Short-term, the TSPT has engaged in security planning for an Israeli withdrawal and the handover of territory. The TSPThas also served as a means of integrating the PA SF in the long term by institutionalizing the inter-service planning process and facilitating their coordination in implementation. It has been imperative that short-term planning does not prejudice any aspect of long-term development of the PA SF. Indeed, opportunities to facilitate long-term reform must be seized when they present themselves. Following the disengagement, the TSPT is expected to become the National Security Planning Team.

Security Implementation Process

As of the beginning of July 2005, a Concept of Operations (CONOPs) – that is, a single plan for all PA SF during Israeli withdrawal-- was completed. The coordinating instructions are currently being developed. The adaptation of the completed plan in the four sectors (Jenin, Gaza North, Gaza Centre and Gaza South) will follow.

Concurrently, the creation of a structure for implementation of the disengagement security plan has begun. Preparations for the establishment of two joint operation centers (JOC - Ramallah for the West Bank and JOC - Gaza City for the Gaza Strip) and four security operations centers (SOC) are underway.

Reflecting the composition of the TSPT, a minimum of two internationals are slated for deployment to each JOC and SOC. The teams include one individual with a security background and one individual with local knowledge or experience in building relations in the specific communities of the Gaza Strip or the West Bank. The teams will also include local Palestinians, in addition to the formal representation of the PA SF in the operations centers.

In addition to facilitating implementation of the CONOPs, the JOCs and SOCs will provide the TSPT, the MoI and General Ward with updated information regarding the status and conditions of security implementation throughout the disengagement process. To ensure effective implementation of the Palestinian security plan, consolidate command and control and enable the functioning of the JOCs and SOCs, the PA MoI is appointing a joint Palestinian/ITAG implementation team.

Depending upon the degree of coordination achieved between Israeli and Palestinian forces, the ITAG may provide assistance in ensuring effective liaison.

Long-Term Security Sector Development

Following disengagement, ITAG will conduct a more detailed strategic force review, prepare a strategic White Paper and plan for the rationalization of the PA SF within the new political context. It will be difficult to achieve this objective without a parallel economic recovery and DDR strategy.

As for method, this security assessment relied on primary sources for information regarding the PA SF. While many observations will remain relevant after the disengagement concludes, a reshaping of forces and/or rebalancing of powers will have occurred to some extent, thus necessitating further research.

Conclusion of Project

Strategic Assessments terminated its efforts in the Occupied Palestinian Territory in January 2006, in response to the restrictions on operations placed on international organizations by the United States and other countries.  Strategic Assessments has handed over the ITAG framework and methodology to Peace Maintenance International, under the direction of Dr. Jarat Chopra [link to jarat_chopra@brown.edu], with the hopes that similar efforts can be utilized in the Occupied Territory in the future, as well as in other conflict situations, where the international community may support resolution of a conflict.